A Moon of Opportunities (2/2)

The Moon for all, all for the Moon!

To fully enjoy reading this post, listen to New Gold Dream by Simple Minds.

The Moon is calling back. The Earthlings nations are answering in different ways, from scientific purposes to commercial programs. Is it a “free-for-all” or is there already a framework to regulate this new gold rush?

Where there are humans, there is politics, we know. When politics and nations are involved, we find the UN. The same applies to the Outer Space. In fact, I have already cited the UN Outer Space Treaty (Travel to Space 1/3), signed by many countries, including the most prominent ones such as the US, Russia, China and the UE. This treaty not only provides definitions and common understandings, but it also states fundamental principles like:

• Space exploration is open to all States and should be done in the name of mankind;
• “Outer space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty”;
• “The Moon and other celestial bodies shall be used exclusively for peaceful purposes” and no nuclear weapons are allowed for any reason.

This treaty is an attempt to regulate space exploration and exploitation to avoid what happened with colonialism on the Earth, at least in terms of general principles. Its approach is similar to the one used for Antarctica, with the Antarctic Treaty, but unfortunately it does not provide many details on how to operate on the Moon and on other celestial bodies, such as asteroids, and what to do with their resources.

So the UN produced another document, the Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, better known as Moon Agreement or Moon Treaty. As stated by its name, its purpose is to add details and rules, filling the gaps left behind by the Outer Space Treaty. On top of those details, it envisions also that an international entity should govern the exploitation of space resources, with the aim to share those resources and the technologies used for mining with the developing nations. In this way the treaty is not only sharing part of those resources with the minor countries, but also the intellectual properties developed by private enterprises which usually are more valuable than the resources themselves.

Therefore, very few countries warmed to it and since 1979, the year of its adoption, just 18 of them ratified the Moon treaty, none from the elite group capable of space missions. Why? Soon said: opportunities, in this case denied opportunities.The Moon treaty imposed too many limitations, not only for the countries themselves, but especially for their private enterprises.

So, many nations decided to act by themselves, enacting local laws, quite similar to each other: on one hand, they winked at the Outer Space Treaty (the country do not own space resources), but, on the other hand, they allowed private entities to seek, collect, use and own resources found in space, keeping their industrial secrets for themselves. Examples of these country specific regulations are the U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act (2015) or the Loi du 20 juillet 2017 sur l’exploration et l’utilisation des ressources de l’espace, promulgated by Luxembourg (yes, also Luxembourg!).

In a few words, local and worldwide policies are opening the gates to a new gold dream for all the investors willing to bet on the infinite potential of space. Is it good? Well, for sure the arrival of commercial companies accelerates tremendously much needed technological development, but the lack of common rules sooner or later will lead to some inevitable clashes.

To be honest, speaking about conflicts, something has already happened… We have already encountered the NASA-led Artemis, the most advanced program to bring back humans to the Moon, in collaboration with several other countries and, of course, private companies, mostly American. Obviously, all these different parties need rules to collaborate productively. That’s why, besides the technical program, NASA has worked to collect international consensus on the Artemis Accords, a document providing the needed framework of definitions, common understandings and rules. Its aim is to coordinate all the entities involved and to provide an external and “transparent” view on how Artemis works and will work. In this way other countries can figure out what to expect from it and they can eventually find common ground with their own lunar programs, maybe deciding to collaborate and join the venture.

Again, another good idea, isn’t it? Nevertheless, some have thought that these agreements and the political turn of the Artemis program were not offering enough opportunities to their own country. Guess who? Yes, the Russians.
In a recent declaration, Dmitry Rogozin, Roscosmos Chief, banned Artemis as a “political project” for the US, very similar to NATO, and so not good at all for them. He added also that they (Roscosmos) were observing the departure of their “American partners from the principles of cooperation and mutual support that have developed in cooperation with the ISS”. So it really seems that they have decided to leave the program, in which they were involved for the realization of the Lunar Gateway.

Of course, Russia is not giving up again the lunar enterprise and they have already found a new partner for their program: China! It wasn’t hard to guess, China is the only other country able so far to soft-land payloads to the Moon surface and their lunar program is already well advanced. Actually the first Russia-China agreement was signed in 2019, before Rogozin’s words against Artemis, but now it seems to them the only possible alternative not to lose again the Moon train.

The Chinese program is called Chang’e, after the name of their Moon goddess, and it is currently on the 4^th robotic mission. So, when is the first human mission planned for? It should happen by the end of the Twenties, so by 2029-30. Yes, it is a bit more further away in time than Artemis, but their approach will be a bit different. First, they plan to set-up a robotic outpost on the South Pole of the Moon and then they will send there their astronauts. Why the South Pole? Let me think… Opportunities! Yes, the South Pole is the most promising area of the Moon to host a manned outpost, since it contains a lot of iced water, fundamental for human survival, especially in space.
On the technical side, the Chang’e program has already:

• a huge rocket available, the Long March 5, already capable to send payloads to the Moon
• a new crewed capsule in testing phase,
• a mission currently running on the far side of the Moon, the first one ever sent there, named Chang’e-4,
• at least 4 missions already planned to bring landers, rovers and a sample-return spacecraft.

They are just slightly behind Artemis, but they are catching very fast.

On the other side, Roscosoms lunar program, called Luna-Glob, has a very similar plan, ending with a manned lunar base on the South Pole by the beginning of 2030s. Up to now the program was a bit stalled due to other priorities, but the possible collaboration with China could really speed it up.

Will we see a Sino-Russian base on the Moon’s South Pole by the end of this decade? If China’s money and engineering will merge with Russia’s experience and knowledge, this could be a very plausible scenario, possibly leading to a new Space Race…

Wow, it seems there is a lot going on around the Moon, Artemis and Chang’e (+ Luna-Glob) are the most important and currently the only manned initiatives, but, as illustrated in my previous entry, India with its Chandrayaan Program and Israel with its non-profit organization SpaceIL are also really trying to keep them company!

Then, no doubts! The Moon will be our second rocky home, but who will be first to settle there is still unknown. For sure all of them are working hard to finally go to the Moon to stay, contributing decisively to our transformation into Spacepolitans!